Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x781d…d080 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$80 (-10%) realized −$61 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 125d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$80
sports 10% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 20 -18.0% -25.8% 40% 35% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 35% -20.0%
10% -32.9% 30% -27.6%
15% -39.4% 30% -34.6%
20% -45.3% 25% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$17 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage125d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 43¢ 68¢ $35 $55 +$20 (+57%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 47¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down on February 15? Mar 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 15? Mar 13 $10 +$10 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 14 $5 −$4 -99%
XRP Up or Down on February 15? Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Feb 14 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Feb 14 $2 +$5 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Feb 14 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Feb 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 14 $77 +$77 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Feb 14 $132 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? Feb 14 $122 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 47¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on February 15? BUY Down 47¢ $5 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 15? BUY Down 47¢ $5 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 124d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 15? BUY Down 53¢ $5 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 15? BUY Down 52¢ $5 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 124d
XRP Up or Down on February 15? BUY Down 51¢ $5 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $44 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $15 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $50 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $10 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.98 · official $54.98 (match) · 80 history records