Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x781d…201b
sports · 214 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
−$1,667 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,715 · open +$51
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,119
Realized−$1,715
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses96 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$240
Open positions3
Markets (closed)211 / 214
History coverage99d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 3 History 211 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$542
7 days−$788
14 days−$857
30 days−$2,639
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $784 $777 −$7 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 60¢ 73¢ $268 $326 +$58 (+22%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A NRG 47¢ 0¢ $447 $0 −$447 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Team Liquid 46¢ 0¢ $273 $0 −$273 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner B8 19¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Open Qualifier 1 Playoffs InterActive Philippines 37¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B Lynn Vision 27¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs 9z 60¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 48¢ 0¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner TYLOO 39¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Aurora 47¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) TYLOO 36¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 48¢ 0¢ $549 $0 −$549 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 33¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) T1 35¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner TYLOO 32¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner paiN 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Fonseca (+2.5) Djokovic 43¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner T1 47¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 62¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner LGD Gaming 29¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $700 +$367 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $749 −$48 -6%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $137 −$135 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$14 +221%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $558 −$549 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $104 −$19 -18%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $153 −$150 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 −$14 -97%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 10 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $22 +$8 +36%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $44 −$21 -49%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $54 −$10 -19%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $53 −$28 -53%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $103 −$21 -20%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $60 +$43 +71%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $50 +$38 +77%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Sergio Callejon Jun 09 $30 +$20 +64%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $20 −$19 -97%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 09 $58 −$8 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $33 −$19 -58%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $19 +$13 +70%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $22 −$3 -15%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $186 −$122 -66%
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) Jun 04 $85 −$84 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $51 −$30 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $31 −$30 -97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$15 +60%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast As Jun 04 $77 +$43 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $177 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $192 −$42 -22%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $71 +$102 +143%
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Fonseca (+2.5) May 29 $100 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $81 −$80 -99%
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) May 29 $101 +$77 +76%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner May 20 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $602 −$106 -18%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $331 −$241 -73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner May 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner May 20 $506 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 20 $235 −$124 -53%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 20 $405 −$18 -4%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $454 −$447 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $392 +$549 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% −$1,756
other 14% +$372
crypto 3% −$151
weather 1% −$25
world 1% −$107
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $795 1m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $271 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $594 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 92¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 89¢ $191 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 83¢ $238 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 60¢ $700 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $701 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 48¢ $137 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 46¢ $137 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $144 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $749 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $4 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 28¢ $1 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 41¢ $1 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 41¢ $1 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 92¢ $20 6h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 20¢ $2 6h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $4 6h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 34¢ $82 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 99¢ $4 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 81¢ $81 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 54¢ $2 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $17 8h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $121 9h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $102 9h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) BUY T1 35¢ $153 9h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $355 9h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 24h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY InterActive Philippines 37¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -30.2% -36.8% 25% 25% -31.6%
≤30d 103 -15.7% -23.8% 40% 36% -24.3%
≤90d 193 -3.1% -12.3% 44% 42% -15.2%
all 211 -1.5% -10.9% 45% 43% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 43% -14.6%
10% -19.4% 42% -22.7%
15% -27.2% 40% -30.2%
20% -34.3% 33% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,119.14 · official $1,119.14 (match) · 703 history records