Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
78 0x781c…0856 sports 3 markets active 12d ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,923 (-77%) realized −$4,923 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,118per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$1,383
world 36% −$2,300
sports 20% −$1,240
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -115% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -115% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1,641 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,923
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage12d
Avg bet$2,118
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $1,253 −$1,240 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2,801 −$1,383 -49%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 22 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $1,253 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1,258 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $675 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2,080 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $47 11d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 11¢ $2,300 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records