Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x781c…049f world 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 363d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$689 (-7%) realized −$631 · open −$58
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate61%68W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$3,011now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$157
14 days+$78
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$809
other 35% +$73
politics 13% −$13
tech 6% +$142
sports 3% −$181
culture 2% +$14
crypto 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +54.7% +40.0% 71% 71% +63.0%
≤30d 10 +51.9% +37.4% 70% 70% +19.4%
≤90d 20 +16.3% +5.2% 65% 55% -1.9%
all 111 +4.4% -5.5% 61% 38% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 38% -19.2%
10% -14.6% 31% -27.0%
15% -22.8% 22% -34.0%
20% -30.4% 15% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$49 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

363d coverage
Net worth$3,011
Realized−$631
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses68 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions40
Markets (closed)111 / 139
History coverage363d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 57¢ $910 $910 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $396 $398 +$2 (+1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 70¢ $250 $212 −$38 (-15%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $205 $204 −$1 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 83¢ 81¢ $163 $160 −$3 (-2%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 14¢ $144 $102 −$42 (-29%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 89¢ $93 $93 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $86 $92 +$6 (+8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $82 $90 +$8 (+10%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 72¢ $87 $89 +$1 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 57¢ 88¢ $57 $88 +$30 (+52%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 51¢ 83¢ $51 $83 +$32 (+62%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $78 $79 +$1 (+1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 55¢ 33¢ $110 $66 −$44 (-40%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 73¢ 58¢ $73 $58 −$15 (-21%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 14¢ 50¢ $14 $50 +$36 (+254%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+16%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 72¢ 96¢ $22 $29 +$7 (+34%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 51¢ $3 $25 +$22 (+760%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $16 $24 +$9 (+58%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 22¢ $33 $24 −$9 (-28%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 50¢ 38¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+12%)
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Yes 28¢ $3 $14 +$11 (+368%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +37%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$8 +39%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $22 +$4 +20%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 15 $39 +$91 +231%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $58 +$91 +156%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 09 $80 −$79 -99%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 27 $2 +$4 +194%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 27 $70 +$29 +42%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? May 16 $38 +$12 +32%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $53 −$53 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 15 $48 +$2 +5%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 08 $190 +$10 +5%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $32 +$18 +54%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Apr 02 $56 −$56 -100%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $42 +$28 +65%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $68 +$32 +46%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $19 +$31 +163%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $19 +$30 +156%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $32 +$68 +212%
Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition Mar 02 $169 +$236 +139%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 27? Feb 28 $82 +$7 +9%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13? Feb 13 $118 +$7 +6%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? Feb 01 $6 +$1 +11%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Feb 01 $105 +$95 +90%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $57 +$23 +40%
Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16? Jan 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Dictator" during the Detroit speech on Tue Jan 14 $1 +$2 +170%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-01-13? Jan 14 $20 +$1 +5%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Jan 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-14? Jan 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 09 $1 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 09 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 09 $65 +$22 +33%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026? Jan 07 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Jan 07 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $38 −$33 -86%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Jan 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Afghanistan in 2025? Jan 04 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025? Jan 04 $46 +$4 +10%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Jan 04 $83 +$17 +20%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jan 04 $95 +$5 +5%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026? Jan 03 $24 −$23 -100%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 17¢ $0 6m
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 17¢ $8 6m
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 17¢ $8 9m
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 57¢ $37 16m
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 57¢ $6 35m
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $21 59m
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 57¢ $50 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 57¢ $171 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 57¢ $114 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 57¢ $57 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 58¢ $23 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 58¢ $294 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 58¢ $12 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 58¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 58¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 58¢ $3 1h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $9 1h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $9 1h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $9 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 58¢ $3 2h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 58¢ $147 2h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $9 2h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $9 2h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $9 2h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $9 2h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $46 2h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $9 2h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $36 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $3 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,010.56 · official $3,010.59 (match) · 763 history records