Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:44:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x781a…f90a crypto 640 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-2%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate65%416W / 224L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$13
14 days−$40
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 50% -20.7%
≤30d 430 -2.8% -12.1% 69% 42% -12.4%
≤90d 640 -3.7% -12.9% 65% 44% -13.9%
all 640 -3.7% -12.9% 65% 44% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 44% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 10% -22.1%
15% -28.8% 4% -29.7%
20% -35.8% 2% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses416 / 224
Open positions0
Markets (closed)640 / 640
History coverage62d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 640 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$5 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 08 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$3 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$4 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.64 · official $0.00 (match) · 1989 history records