Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:33:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x7818…d185
other · 125 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$6,688 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,075 · open −$263
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$50,019
Realized+$5,075
Unrealized−$263
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses47 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions41
Markets (closed)94 / 125
Avg bet$1,762
Trades / day61.6
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 41 History 94 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$491
7 days−$205
14 days−$973
30 days−$842
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $7,749 $7,315 −$434 (-6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $6,353 $7,184 +$831 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5,312 $5,203 −$109 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $4,951 $4,799 −$152 (-3%)
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? No 87¢ 92¢ $2,517 $2,672 +$155 (+6%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $2,240 $2,424 +$185 (+8%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,337 $2,418 +$81 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $1,297 $1,594 +$298 (+23%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $1,428 $1,475 +$47 (+3%)
Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 73¢ 80¢ $1,347 $1,470 +$123 (+9%)
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? No 81¢ 77¢ $1,330 $1,267 −$64 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $1,140 $1,178 +$38 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $1,244 $1,177 −$66 (-5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $968 $1,058 +$90 (+9%)
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? No 71¢ 53¢ $1,404 $1,055 −$349 (-25%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? No 97¢ 97¢ $971 $970 −$2 (-0%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $754 $795 +$41 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $622 $616 −$6 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $649 $554 −$95 (-15%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 61¢ 56¢ $600 $549 −$51 (-8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $472 $496 +$24 (+5%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $450 $475 +$25 (+6%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 94¢ 93¢ $468 $467 −$2 (-0%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 90¢ $341 $450 +$110 (+32%)
Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 90¢ 82¢ $468 $426 −$41 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $490 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $1,498 −$19 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $31,394 +$405 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $1,091 +$160 +15%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $200 −$54 -27%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $26 $0 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $1,456 +$148 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $1,256 −$454 -36%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $176 +$24 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $630 −$116 -18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $1,480 +$23 +2%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 05 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 05 $266 −$264 -99%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $734 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $690 +$297 +43%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $190 −$152 -80%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $11,891 +$832 +7%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 04 $189 +$14 +8%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $921 −$483 -52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $9,138 −$526 -6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $275 +$531 +193%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $1,538 +$275 +18%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $78 +$2 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $445 +$55 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2,134 +$265 +12%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $172 −$122 -71%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $1,318 −$251 -19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $2,548 −$574 -22%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 01 $386 −$210 -54%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $50 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $162 −$11 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $9,729 −$1,934 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $790 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $14,162 +$1,742 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 29 $3,797 −$520 -14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $660 +$472 +72%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $1,260 +$80 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 27 $524 +$17 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $425 +$20 +5%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $60 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $1,460 +$270 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $907 +$14 +2%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 22 $115 +$182 +159%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 22 $162 −$162 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $1,214 +$39 +3%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $4 +$3 +66%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $2,482 −$458 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 19 $589 −$27 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 56% −$303
other 28% +$5,057
politics 8% −$1,158
crypto 6% +$1,176
economics 1% +$41
tech 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 70¢ $32 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $129 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $270 7h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $400 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $330 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 62¢ $118 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $172 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 62¢ $20 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 62¢ $61 9h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $4,394 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $962 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $16 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -22.0% -29.4% 36% 14% -9.4%
≤30d 60 -7.2% -16.0% 45% 22% -10.0%
≤90d 94 +37.5% +24.4% 50% 29% -7.1%
all 94 +37.5% +24.4% 50% 29% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover61.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.4% 29% -7.1%
10% +12.5% 14% -16.0%
15% ← realistic here +1.6% 12% -24.1%
20% -8.4% 10% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50,019.26 · official $50,019.27 (match) · 3500 history records