Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7817…c98e other 262 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 247L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$27
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$40
sports 22% −$22
crypto 8% −$6
politics 8% −$6
economics 7% −$10
culture 6% −$6
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 261 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)261 / 262
History coverage138d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $56 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $270 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $334 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $278 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $518 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $380 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $149 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $357 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $442 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $271 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $316 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $194 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $311 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $134 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $136 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $395 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $295 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $131 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $145 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $912 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $491 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $367 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $294 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $250 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $413 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $222 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 3h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 4h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 6h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 7h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 8h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 9h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $15 14h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $15 16h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $56 21h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $56 23h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 24h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 25h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 30h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 31h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 33h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 34h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 36h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $56 37h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 42h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 44h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 46h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.49 · official $55.49 (match) · 1454 history records