Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7816…af9d crypto 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$10,449 (-35%) realized −$10,447 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate56%66W / 51L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$72
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$9,027
other 15% −$70
crypto 12% −$433
world 9% +$54
sports 3% −$403
finance 3% −$600
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +18.5% +7.2% 50% 50% +7.4%
≤30d 4 +18.5% +7.2% 50% 50% +7.4%
≤90d 10 -14.1% -22.2% 40% 40% -31.7%
all 117 -9.9% -18.5% 56% 36% -39.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 36% -39.8%
10% -26.3% 30% -45.5%
15% -33.4% 24% -50.8%
20% -39.9% 15% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$262 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized−$10,447
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses66 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage594d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $257 $255 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? Jun 16 $148 +$77 +52%
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? Jun 16 $78 −$24 -30%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $99 −$32 -33%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $60 +$51 +85%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Apr 30 $80 +$37 +46%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 31 $281 −$281 -100%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 22 $200 −$200 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 22 $298 +$131 +44%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 22 $55 −$3 -5%
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli Mar 09 $2,491 −$565 -23%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 08 $559 $0 +0%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Mar 05 $385 +$23 +6%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-13? Mar 04 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 04 $227 +$21 +9%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $253 +$28 +11%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? Mar 04 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Trump say "Friend of Mine" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? Mar 04 $73 +$27 +37%
Will Trump say "Tariff" 6+ times during meetings with Chancellor Merz? Mar 04 $72 +$128 +178%
Will Trump say "Percent" 7+ times during meetings with Chancellor Merz Mar 04 $78 +$122 +156%
Will Trump say "Iran" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? Mar 03 $432 +$33 +8%
Will Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standing Feb 27 $175 +$48 +28%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 26 $117 −$29 -24%
Trump out as President before 2027? Feb 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-02-20? Feb 19 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen advance to the round of 16? Feb 19 $100 +$38 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $100 +$117 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 17 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Feb 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Feb 17 $104 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Feb 17 $14 +$6 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Feb 17 $44 −$36 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Feb 17 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Feb 17 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Feb 16 $38 −$33 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Feb 16 $50 +$26 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 16 $31 −$19 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 16 $63 +$39 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Feb 16 $40 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 16 $105 +$65 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 16 $110 −$108 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Feb 16 $24 −$13 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Feb 16 $55 +$15 +27%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-02-14? Feb 16 $156 +$254 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 12 $266 −$263 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 23m
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? SELL No 44¢ $4 23m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $53 25m
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $25 25m
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $29 25m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $66 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $16 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $35 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $16 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $139 1h
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? SELL No 47¢ $5 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $111 1h
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? SELL No 55¢ $2 26h
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? SELL No 55¢ $6 2d
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? SELL No 55¢ $14 2d
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? SELL No 55¢ $1 4d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 40d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 40d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 40d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 40d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 41d
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? SELL No 55¢ $34 42d
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? SELL No 55¢ $6 42d
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? SELL No 55¢ $3 42d
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? SELL No 55¢ $3 42d
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? SELL No 55¢ $2 42d
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? SELL No 55¢ $11 42d
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? SELL No 55¢ $3 42d
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? SELL No 55¢ $7 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.38 · official $255.38 (match) · 1061 history records