Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7816…b372 other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$18
politics 20% −$6
sports 10% +$57
economics 4% −$1
crypto 4% −$14
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 109 +1.1% -8.5% 13% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 6% -9.5%
10% -17.3% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×8.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage135d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 100¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $464 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $207 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $216 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $288 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $216 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $493 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $277 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $239 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $217 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $263 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $247 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $246 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 15 $254 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $233 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $229 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $265 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $286 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $226 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $334 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $233 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $217 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 07 $255 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 07 $272 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $295 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $655 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 05 $365 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $239 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Detry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $315 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $618 −$2 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $273 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $308 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 03 $239 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 47h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 99¢ $42 3d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $42 4d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 5d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $38 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $38 9d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 9d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 19d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $199 23d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $199 26d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $207 28d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $207 31d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 32d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 33d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $265 38d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $265 48d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 64d
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election SELL No 100¢ $51 64d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $216 65d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $216 65d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $210 65d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $210 65d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $236 66d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $236 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $213 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $213 66d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $228 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.94 · official $36.94 (match) · 321 history records