Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:59:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

78 0x7815…7310 sports 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown44%max

Avg bet$187per market

Trades / day14.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-24.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-16.3%	-24.2%	80%	0%	-7.6%
≤30d	5	-16.3%	-24.2%	80%	0%	-7.6%
≤90d	5	-16.3%	-24.2%	80%	0%	-7.6%
all	5	-16.3%	-24.2%	80%	0%	-7.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-24.2%	0%	-7.6%
10%	-31.5%	0%	-16.5%
15%	-38.1%	0%	-24.5%
20%	-44.2%	0%	-31.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×3.3 per $1 lost it wins $3.3

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$14

Realized−$10

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$187

Trades / day14.0

Drawdown44%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels	Baltimore Orioles	68¢	94¢	$10	$14	+$4 (+39%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5	Jun 23	$400	+$10	+3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5	Jun 23	$100	+$5	+5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$501	+$8	+2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$100	+$10	+10%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5	SELL Under	100¢	$411	6m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5	BUY Under	97¢	$400	40m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5	SELL Under	100¢	$105	43m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	95¢	$100	49m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels	BUY Baltimore Orioles	68¢	$10	50m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$202	56m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	93¢	$203	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	95¢	$200	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	95¢	$200	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	94¢	$104	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	90¢	$100	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$110	2h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider	BUY Diana Shnaider	66¢	$10	18h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$100	18h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.90 · official $13.60 (match) · 15 history records