Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
78 0x7814…1d3a other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 742d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5,578 (+220%) realized +$5,578 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days+$961
14 days+$761
30 days+$1,154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$4,786
sports 13% +$791
tech 4% −$100
crypto 2% −$60
economics 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+60.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +264.6% +229.9% 33% 33% +524.7%
≤30d 8 +85.4% +67.8% 38% 38% +80.3%
≤90d 9 +102.1% +82.9% 44% 44% +96.5%
all 14 +77.4% +60.5% 43% 43% +185.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +60.5% 43% +185.4%
10% +45.2% 43% +158.1%
15% +31.1% 43% +133.1%
20% +18.3% 36% +110.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +117% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt +215% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late +92% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$992 vs −$65 · ×15.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.44 per $1 lost it wins $11.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

742d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,578
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage742d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 22 $103 +$1,021 +994%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 11 $200 +$303 +152%
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 11 $500 +$190 +38%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 13 $177 +$416 +236%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 25 $993 +$4,007 +404%
US recession in 2025? Jan 13 $30 +$18 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 18? Sep 18 $15 −$15 -100%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Netherlands win? Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records