Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7812…4bcd other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,814 (-20%) realized −$1,814 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate44%55W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,885
7 days−$1,469
14 days−$1,469
30 days−$1,588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$1,143
world 6% −$537
sports 5% −$236
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -4.7% -13.7% 38% 34% -30.1%
≤30d 49 +0.9% -8.7% 47% 41% -29.2%
≤90d 91 +6.4% -3.7% 48% 41% -29.6%
all 124 -1.5% -10.9% 44% 32% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 32% -28.7%
10% -19.4% 27% -35.5%
15% -27.2% 25% -41.8%
20% -34.3% 19% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$60 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$1,814
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses55 / 69
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)124 / 127
History coverage127d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 +$11 +17%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $69 −$68 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $537 −$537 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $343 −$343 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $314 −$314 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $277 −$277 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $114 −$114 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $369 +$330 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $206 +$494 +239%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $133 −$133 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $55 +$45 +83%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $36 +$64 +180%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$8 +426%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,199 +$390 +33%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $179 −$179 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $577 −$577 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $241 +$264 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $293 −$293 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $257 −$77 -30%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +165%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $102 −$86 -84%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $428 +$187 +44%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $174 +$13 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $8 +$6 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $49 −$35 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $34 +$9 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $16 +$23 +142%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $24 −$17 -73%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $138 −$74 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $56 +$30 +54%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $16 −$13 -79%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $34 +$17 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $104 +$46 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $14 +$6 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $85 −$85 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $14 +$6 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $4 +$13 +285%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $33 +$58 +176%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 54m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $62 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $69 13h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 16h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 26h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $537 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $343 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $314 42h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $114 43h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $238 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $277 43h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $694 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $369 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $114 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.28 · official $14.27 (match) · 724 history records