Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:00:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
78 0x7812…21d8 other 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate41%53W / 77L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$16
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$20
sports 26% +$22
other 25% +$43
politics 12% −$14
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% −$4
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.2% -11.5% 22% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 26 -6.1% -15.1% 23% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 36 -4.1% -13.2% 39% 0% -9.6%
all 130 +16.1% +5.0% 41% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 7% -9.2%
10% -5.0% 6% -17.9%
15% -14.2% 5% -25.9%
20% -22.6% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses53 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage523d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 86¢ 86¢ $73 $74 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $81 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $19 −$5 -27%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $84 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $170 +$1 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $60 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $161 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $77 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $97 −$13 -13%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $98 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 -10%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $193 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $182 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $379 −$3 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $98 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $91 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $10 −$1 -14%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $92 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $4 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $101 +$1 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $515 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $568 +$8 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $553 +$1 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $551 +$2 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 17 $548 +$3 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $547 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Dec 09 $2 $0 +5%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 08 $12 $0 +3%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 04 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 04 $11 $0 +2%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 29 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump issue 25-29 executive orders in May? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 22 $9 $0 +6%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $73 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $72 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $72 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 34h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes $14 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $19 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $12 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $12 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $84 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $84 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $85 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $85 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $60 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $60 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $77 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $76 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $84 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $84 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $65 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $77 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $27 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.53 · official $73.53 (match) · 415 history records