Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x7810…b011 sports 315 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$162 (+1%) realized +$161 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%142W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days+$235
14 days+$43
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$342
crypto 42% −$305
world 5% +$66
other 3% +$86
culture 1% −$56
finance 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +22.7% +11.0% 37% 37% +14.6%
≤30d 71 +16.8% +5.7% 39% 39% -8.0%
≤90d 208 +6.4% -3.8% 44% 42% -9.5%
all 310 +1.2% -8.5% 46% 43% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 43% -8.7%
10% -17.2% 40% -17.5%
15% -25.2% 35% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 32% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$22 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$161
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses142 / 168
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions2
Markets (closed)310 / 315
History coverage101d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $53 $53 +$1 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$24 -82%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 −$20 -57%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $135 +$49 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$120 +293%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $17 $0 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 −$3 -14%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -7%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$12 +115%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$3 -33%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$36 +234%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$12 +117%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$33 +324%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$20 +194%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $26 +$92 +360%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$56 +543%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $15 +$23 +149%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $56 +$43 +78%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $21 +$20 +95%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 +$50 +246%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$15 +145%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $14 +$17 +126%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 09 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 09 $59 −$59 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $53 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $29 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 20¢ $15 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $36 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $184 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $135 3h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 44¢ $25 3h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY Yes 50¢ $8 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY 25¢ $41 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY $5 6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $18 7h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 31¢ $14 9h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 9h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 88¢ $22 10h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 14¢ $7 10h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 26h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 26h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 26h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates $0 26h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates $0 26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $51 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 31h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $22 31h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 38¢ $20 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.08 · official $109.08 · 834 history records