Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x780f…91ff crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$275 (-7%) realized −$296 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%23W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$485
7 days−$485
14 days−$485
30 days−$704
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$683
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -21.6% -29.1% 46% 38% -21.9%
≤30d 50 -22.9% -30.2% 46% 36% -25.2%
≤90d 50 -22.9% -30.2% 46% 36% -25.2%
all 50 -22.9% -30.2% 46% 36% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 36% -25.2%
10% -36.9% 34% -32.4%
15% -43.0% 24% -38.9%
20% -48.6% 16% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$58 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$296
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses23 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage26d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 0¢ 52¢ $0 $21 +$21 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $24 −$20 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$274 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $95 +$98 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $563 −$554 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $172 +$31 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $836 −$221 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $316 +$28 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $29 −$23 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $123 −$17 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $181 +$85 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $80 −$79 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $96 −$93 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $390 +$142 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $67 +$22 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$20 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 29 $12 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 29 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 28 $14 +$10 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 28 $12 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 28 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 28 $16 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 28 $45 −$44 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 28 $7 +$18 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 28 $34 +$14 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 28 $23 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 28 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 28 $27 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 28 $49 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 28 $38 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 28 $28 +$24 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 28 $27 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 28 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 28 $36 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 28 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 28 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 28 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $69 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $15 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $13 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $14 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $25 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $95 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $389 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $39 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $31 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $14 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $89 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $172 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $424 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $22 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.70 · official $19.50 · 191 history records