Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
78 0x780d…063e other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$130 (-11%) realized −$266 · open +$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$674now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$110
14 days−$136
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$123
sports 10% +$124
politics 9% −$103
finance 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 +7.9% -2.4% 57% 57% -32.3%
≤90d 7 +7.9% -2.4% 57% 57% -32.3%
all 8 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 50% -43.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 50% -43.7%
10% -22.8% 50% -49.1%
15% -30.2% 50% -54.0%
20% -37.1% 25% -58.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$106 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$674
Realized−$266
Unrealized+$136
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage318d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $100 $233 +$133 (+133%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $238 $224 −$14 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $214 −$212 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$114 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 +$61 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $27 +$11 +41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Jun 04 $19 +$8 +41%
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi Aug 08 $103 −$103 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $140 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 2h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $214 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $27 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 71¢ $19 84d
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi BUY Yes 27¢ $103 318d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $673.86 · official $673.86 (match) · 17 history records