Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x780c…b2db crypto 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,749 (-441%) realized −$6,619 · open −$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%75W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$410
other 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -15.2% -23.3% 41% 41% -19.1%
≤30d 174 -3.9% -13.1% 43% 43% -28.3%
≤90d 174 -3.9% -13.1% 43% 43% -28.3%
all 174 -3.9% -13.1% 43% 43% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 43% -28.3%
10% -21.4% 43% -35.2%
15% -29.0% 43% -41.4%
20% -35.9% 43% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,619
Unrealized−$130
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses75 / 99
Open positions3
Markets (closed)174 / 177
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$24 +91%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$6 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$6 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$7 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$5 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$11 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$6 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$7 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$8 +103%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$8 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$6 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$6 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$6 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$6 +91%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$7 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$9 +119%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$6 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 33h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 36h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.26 · official $0.26 (match) · 3500 history records