Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7806…e5f9 crypto 879 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$389 (-1%) realized −$389 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate80%703W / 176L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$22
14 days−$120
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$586
sports 2% −$34
other 2% −$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +2.3% -7.4% 90% 35% -5.9%
≤30d 54 -3.0% -12.2% 83% 33% -14.9%
≤90d 879 +2.4% -7.3% 80% 47% -11.3%
all 879 +2.4% -7.3% 80% 47% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 47% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 27% -19.8%
15% -24.3% 14% -27.5%
20% -31.7% 7% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$29 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$389
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses703 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)879 / 879
History coverage71d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 879 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $90 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Remy Bertola vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 24 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 $0 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $33 −$33 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$14 +68%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$92 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$6 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$3 +5%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 12 $79 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $142 −$87 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $125 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$13 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $20 3h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY No 95¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $19 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 8h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 82¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 26h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $80 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2408 history records