Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x7804…7025
other · 293 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
+$107,833 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$41,118 · open +$44,289
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$184,714
Realized+$41,118
Unrealized+$44,289
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses193 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$493
Open positions31
Markets (closed)285 / 293
History coverage24d
Avg bet$11,823
Trades / day133.8
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 31 History 285 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31,608
7 days−$63,144
14 days−$3,365
30 days+$41,118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 21¢ 81¢ $12,036 $46,752 +$34,715 (+288%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? No 99¢ 100¢ $45,532 $45,837 +$305 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 55¢ 84¢ $15,848 $24,152 +$8,304 (+52%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100? No 99¢ 100¢ $21,817 $21,897 +$79 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? No 99¢ 100¢ $9,914 $9,984 +$70 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $9,300 $9,610 +$310 (+3%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? Anthropic 95¢ 97¢ $4,621 $4,697 +$75 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4,399 $4,656 +$257 (+6%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $3,270 $3,282 +$12 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3,220 $3,210 −$10 (-0%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $2,884 $3,020 +$136 (+5%)
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $1,458 $1,494 +$36 (+2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,400 $1,450 +$50 (+4%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 28¢ 56¢ $429 $855 +$426 (+99%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $572 $589 +$17 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $764 $518 −$246 (-32%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $578 $495 −$83 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $492 $490 −$1 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? No 93¢ 94¢ $371 $376 +$5 (+1%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? Yes 80¢ 98¢ $256 $312 +$56 (+22%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $550 $300 −$250 (-45%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of June 8 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $152 $156 +$4 (+3%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $114 $133 +$19 (+17%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? No 87¢ 98¢ $108 $122 +$14 (+13%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June? No 91¢ 97¢ $81 $87 +$6 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $212 Week of May 11 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 12 $547 −$547 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 6? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 12 $700 −$700 -100%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-Ma Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 19? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May Jun 12 $4,317 −$4,516 -105%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $34,369 −$34,369 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 6? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Drake feature 21 Savage on ICEMAN? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Jun 12 $145 −$145 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $198 +$4,331 +2191%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $1,594 −$1,594 -100%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $366 −$366 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 12 $149 +$1,227 +822%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $4,179 −$4,179 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10,600 +$9,400 +89%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 09 $25 +$7 +29%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $69,000 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 09 $2,346 +$37 +2%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $51,408 −$25,615 -50%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 08 $1,627 +$359 +22%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 08 $12,021 +$916 +8%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Bahrain 0 - 0 Syria? Jun 08 $88 +$1 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 8? Jun 08 $104 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on June 8? Jun 08 $150 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 8? Jun 08 $182 +$3 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 8? Jun 08 $272 +$6 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 8? Jun 08 $338 +$1 +0%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $485 +$4 +1%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $645 +$2 +0%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1,056 +$2 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 08 $13,519 −$13,009 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $39,840 +$120 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $304,627 +$438 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $43 +$140 +325%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $236 +$5 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $938 +$5 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $1,014 +$4 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $1,122 +$56 +5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5,254 +$16 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $8,400 +$29 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $41,603 +$935 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $59,222 +$3,021 +5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $65,562 +$978 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 27% +$47,905
finance 24% +$28,240
politics 21% −$21,001
other 12% +$7,210
crypto 12% +$3,300
sports 2% +$56,440
tech 1% +$4,014
culture 0% +$9
economics 0% +$299
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $9,918 3h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 99¢ $9,790 4h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 99¢ $29,949 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $3,271 5h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 80¢ $258 5h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 87¢ $109 5h
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,460 5h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 99¢ $2,877 5h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 99¢ $90 6h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 99¢ $2,846 6h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $5 7h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $22 8h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $0 8h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $8 8h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 99¢ $21,824 9h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3,301 10h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $504 11h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 96¢ $152 14h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1,238 26h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 99¢ $70 28h
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( BUY No 98¢ $44 30h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 81¢ $833 32h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 81¢ $43 32h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 81¢ $29 32h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 81¢ $1 32h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 81¢ $33 32h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 81¢ $13 32h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 81¢ $393 32h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 81¢ $13 32h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 81¢ $20 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +31.0% +18.6% 60% 12% -16.3%
≤30d 285 +13.9% +3.0% 68% 15% -8.4%
≤90d 285 +13.9% +3.0% 68% 15% -8.4%
all 285 +13.9% +3.0% 68% 15% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover133.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.0% 15% -8.4%
10% -6.8% 12% -17.2%
15% ← realistic here -15.8% 10% -25.2%
20% -24.1% 9% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184,713.90 · official $184,724.62 (match) · 3500 history records