Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

78 0x7803…3345 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$27 (+6%) realized +$216 · open −$189

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +101% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +74% what you keep after slip

Net edge+74%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$115per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+81.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+100.7%	+81.6%	100%	67%	+43.0%
≤30d	3	+100.7%	+81.6%	100%	67%	+43.0%
≤90d	3	+100.7%	+81.6%	100%	67%	+43.0%
all	3	+100.7%	+81.6%	100%	67%	+43.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+81.6%	67%	+43.0%
10%	+64.2%	67%	+29.3%
15%	+48.3%	67%	+16.8%
20%	+33.8%	67%	+5.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 80% · top 2 95% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +58% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +101% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$52 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$216

Unrealized−$189

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$115

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	55¢	0¢	$189	$0	−$189 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 29	$183	+$9	+5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$57	+$125	+221%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$30	+$23	+76%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	55¢	$192	1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	37¢	$192	1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$183	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	27¢	$182	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	8¢	$57	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$54	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	56¢	$30	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.17 (match) · 8 history records