Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
78 0x7803…132f sports 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$199 (+3%) realized +$105 · open +$94
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%43W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$201
14 days+$220
30 days+$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$214
other 12% +$185
crypto 1% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +20.4% +8.9% 41% 41% -6.2%
≤30d 103 +21.9% +10.3% 42% 42% -5.9%
≤90d 103 +21.9% +10.3% 42% 42% -5.9%
all 103 +21.9% +10.3% 42% 42% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.3% 42% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -0.3% 42% -14.9%
15% -9.9% 42% -23.1%
20% -18.7% 42% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$55 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$425
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$94
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses43 / 60
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage8d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 55¢ 86¢ $156 $242 +$86 (+55%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 25¢ 26¢ $116 $125 +$9 (+8%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $59 +$61 +103%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $119 −$117 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $59 +$94 +158%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $59 −$59 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $59 −$58 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $59 −$58 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $59 −$59 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $59 +$412 +693%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $109 −$107 -98%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $59 −$58 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $69 −$68 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $49 −$48 -97%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $89 −$87 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $59 −$58 -98%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $99 +$63 +63%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $75 −$73 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $105 −$103 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $79 −$78 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $59 +$56 +94%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $59 +$38 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $59 +$83 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $40 +$49 +124%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $75 +$155 +206%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $168 +$273 +162%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $69 −$68 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $59 +$98 +165%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $79 +$290 +366%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $123 −$120 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $129 −$127 -98%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $119 −$117 -99%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $59 −$58 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $119 −$117 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $99 −$97 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $59 −$58 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $139 −$136 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $59 −$58 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $59 −$58 -98%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $59 −$59 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $99 −$97 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $59 +$76 +127%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $99 +$89 +90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $109 −$107 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $99 −$97 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $99 −$98 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $59 −$58 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $89 +$86 +97%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $59 −$58 -98%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $59 +$46 +78%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $99 +$92 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $59 42m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 20¢ $59 45m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $59 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $121 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $59 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $59 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $99 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $59 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $59 3h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $153 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $59 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $59 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $59 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $59 6h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 38¢ $59 6h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff SELL Paula Badosa 100¢ $241 6h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff SELL Paula Badosa 96¢ $230 6h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 27¢ $20 7h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 29¢ $10 8h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 12¢ $59 8h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 34¢ $10 8h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 43¢ $69 8h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 17¢ $59 8h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova $10 8h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 12¢ $49 8h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 13¢ $10 8h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 23¢ $20 9h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 21¢ $59 9h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 21¢ $59 9h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 26¢ $59 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $425.26 · official $433.86 · 241 history records