trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +87.2% | +69.3% | 50% | 50% | +38.8% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +62.1% | +46.6% | 40% | 40% | +2.9% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +36.1% | +23.1% | 36% | 36% | -18.4% |
| all | 46 | +19.5% | +8.1% | 46% | 43% | -15.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +8.1% | 43% | -15.1% |
| 10% | -2.2% | 39% | -23.3% |
| 15% | -11.7% | 33% | -30.7% |
| 20% | -20.3% | 28% | -37.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 13¢ | $147 | $178 | +$30 (+21%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 13¢ | $95 | $152 | +$57 (+60%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 22 | $52 | +$12 | +23% |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $6 | −$6 | -97% |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 20 | $3 | −$3 | -97% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $5 | +$25 | +497% |
| Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $11 | +$25 | +232% |
| Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 20 | $15 | −$4 | -29% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 15 | $51 | −$6 | -11% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 15 | $128 | −$22 | -17% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 04 | $47 | −$1 | -3% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $20 | +$26 | +129% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee | May 05 | $119 | −$113 | -95% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 07 | $130 | −$12 | -9% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Apr 07 | $249 | +$61 | +24% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Apr 01 | $300 | −$94 | -31% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? | Mar 16 | $150 | −$29 | -20% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? | Mar 10 | $144 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | Mar 07 | $200 | +$42 | +21% |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 23 | $251 | −$251 | -100% |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Jan 18 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | Jan 18 | $106 | −$86 | -81% |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 18 | $600 | −$543 | -91% |
| 49ers vs. Eagles | Jan 12 | $45 | +$46 | +103% |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Jan 10 | $50 | +$18 | +37% |
| Ravens vs. Steelers | Jan 05 | $30 | +$18 | +60% |
| Eagles vs. Bills | Dec 29 | $240 | −$70 | -29% |
| Steelers vs. Browns | Dec 28 | $40 | +$5 | +13% |
| Texans vs. Chargers | Dec 28 | $50 | −$46 | -93% |
| 49ers vs. Colts | Dec 23 | $370 | +$119 | +32% |
| Patriots vs. Ravens | Dec 22 | $120 | +$172 | +143% |
| Chargers vs. Cowboys | Dec 21 | $97 | +$93 | +96% |
| Lions vs. Rams | Dec 14 | $72 | −$72 | -100% |
| Colts vs. Seahawks | Dec 14 | $40 | +$32 | +81% |
| Chargers vs. Chiefs | Dec 14 | $97 | +$186 | +192% |
| Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? | Dec 10 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference | Dec 10 | $60 | −$60 | -100% |
| Bears vs. Packers | Dec 08 | $295 | −$72 | -24% |
| Steelers vs. Ravens | Dec 07 | $160 | +$71 | +44% |
| Bengals vs. Bills | Dec 07 | $52 | +$185 | +356% |
| Bills vs. Steelers | Nov 30 | $90 | +$53 | +59% |
| Vikings vs. Seahawks | Nov 30 | $32 | −$32 | -100% |
| Falcons vs. Jets | Nov 30 | $40 | +$62 | +154% |
| Saints vs. Dolphins | Nov 30 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Texans vs. Colts | Nov 30 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Bears vs. Eagles | Nov 28 | $31 | +$27 | +87% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 28 | $5 | −$1 | -17% |
| Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 30? | Nov 26 | $8 | −$3 | -31% |