Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:53:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x7803…c9af sports 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,912 (+9%) realized +$3,987 · open −$75
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%39W / 74L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$484est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$118
14 days−$1,136
30 days+$1,361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$6,774
other 28% −$4,009
finance 7% +$710
crypto 0% −$84
world 0% +$7
politics 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +58.2% +43.2% 100% 100% +43.2%
≤30d 22 -53.5% -58.0% 23% 23% -1.9%
≤90d 108 -30.2% -36.8% 32% 32% -1.4%
all 113 -29.3% -36.1% 35% 33% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.1% 33% -1.4%
10% -42.2% 31% -10.8%
15% -47.8% 28% -19.5%
20% -52.9% 26% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$550 vs −$243 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$1,176
Realized+$3,987
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses39 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$484
Open positions10
Markets (closed)113 / 123
History coverage118d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $545 +$345 (+173%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $200 $331 +$131 (+66%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $34 −$16 (-32%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $12 −$188 (-94%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $8 −$192 (-96%)
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 13¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$58 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$60 +60%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,923 −$1,900 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $2,041 −$1,077 -53%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,228 −$1,200 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $103 −$100 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $927 −$917 -99%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $123 −$120 -97%
Jodar vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 01 $507 −$500 -98%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $205 −$200 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5,133 +$6,603 +129%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2,028 +$1,741 +86%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 30 $763 −$17 -2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $114 −$111 -98%
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $57 −$55 -97%
Will Moise Kouame win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot May 26 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $34 +$131 +388%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 +$63 +62%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $1,461 +$314 +22%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $123 −$120 -98%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $102 +$231 +226%
Will AS Roma vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? May 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $154 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Lille OSC vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to Score May 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi May 15 $1,328 −$1,300 -98%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $154 −$150 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Nikoloz Basilashvili May 11 $203 −$200 -98%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $367 −$360 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo May 10 $225 +$208 +92%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $154 −$150 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 10 $506 +$344 +68%
Will Marco Tulio win by KO or TKO? May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $153 −$150 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Corentin Moutet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 09 $406 +$241 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $101 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $103 7d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $103 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $509 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,212 11d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 11d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 11d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 11d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 11d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $1,015 12d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,019 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 21¢ $205 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 24¢ $1,023 20d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 19¢ $512 20d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,021 20d
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $103 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $927 23d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 11¢ $123 24d
Jodar vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5 BUY Over 50¢ $507 26d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $5,133 27d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,770 27d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,028 27d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 42¢ $746 27d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 24¢ $902 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,176.27 · official $1,176.27 (match) · 284 history records