Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x7801…10fc crypto 49 markets active 4d ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate64%30W / 17L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$483per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$18
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$32
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 -15.2% -23.3% 85% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 21 -37.9% -43.8% 62% 0% -9.5%
all 47 -31.7% -38.2% 64% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -44.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -49.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -54.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,064) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses30 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage201d
Avg bet$483
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,066 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,064 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,063 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,061 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,055 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,056 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,054 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,052 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 11? Jun 12 $1,050 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 29? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 20? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 11? May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on Apri May 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 2? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 21? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 3? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on March 14? Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on March 2? Mar 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $1,104 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $1,103 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on February 20? Feb 21 $1,100 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 19? Feb 20 $1,095 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 18? Feb 18 $1,092 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 1 Feb 18 $1,088 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 16 Feb 17 $1,084 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on February 15? Feb 15 $1,077 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 14 Feb 15 $1,074 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 13 Feb 14 $1,069 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on February 12? Feb 13 $1,062 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 11 Feb 12 $1,054 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Solana be less than $60 on February 10? Feb 11 $1,050 +$2 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$480 on the final day of trading of th Feb 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on February 6? Feb 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google dip to $215 in January? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 30? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on January 23? Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 19? Dec 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,066 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,064 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,063 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,061 7d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,055 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,056 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1,054 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,052 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,050 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 21d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 29? BUY No 0¢ $2 25d
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 33d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 34d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 11? BUY No 0¢ $3 43d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 48d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 52d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 63d
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on Apri BUY No 100¢ $3 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 12? BUY No 0¢ $2 72d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 78d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 91d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on March 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on March 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 113d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,104 121d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,103 122d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on February 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,100 123d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,095 124d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,092 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.09 · official $3.09 (match) · 91 history records