Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:31:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
78 0x7800…8d99 politics 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$21
politics 42% −$24
sports 6% +$87
crypto 3% −$2
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 114 -1.3% -10.7% 6% 3% -9.6%
all 142 -0.8% -10.3% 11% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 7% -9.4%
10% -18.9% 6% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 4% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×10.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage121d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $334 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $362 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $693 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $690 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $903 −$1 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $533 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $363 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $271 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $282 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $273 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $265 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $341 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 16 $257 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $338 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $306 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $320 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $269 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $321 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $830 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $309 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,349 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $952 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $989 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $986 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 06 $371 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 06 $53 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $317 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $230 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $239 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $249 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $304 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $43 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $46 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $46 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 5d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 5d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 6d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $60 6d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 12d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 12d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 12d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 13d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 13d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 14d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $55 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $55 17d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 17d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 18d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 18d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 20d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i SELL No 100¢ $36 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.06 · official $43.06 (match) · 412 history records