Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:11:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x77fe…baf3
weather · 574 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$62 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$72 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$13
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses266 / 293
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)559 / 574
History coverage88d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 14 History 559 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 61¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 36¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13? Yes 34¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 9? No 64¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 16? Yes 34¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 14? Yes 45¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 12? Yes 30¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 17? Yes 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 25? Yes 59¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 18? Yes 31¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 14? Yes 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 15? Yes 35¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 66¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +119%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on May 27? May 28 $1 +$1 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 27? May 27 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 27? May 27 $1 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 26? May 26 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 26? May 26 $1 +$1 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $1 +$1 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 25? May 25 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $1 +$1 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 25? May 25 $1 +$1 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 25? May 25 $1 +$1 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 81% −$76
sports 11% −$5
other 7% +$9
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 9h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 14¢ $0 9h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 9h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 10h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $1 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 34h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 34h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 34h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 34h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $1 34h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 36h
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $1 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 17¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -9.1% -17.7% 47% 47% -11.3%
≤30d 104 -6.8% -15.7% 42% 42% -14.8%
≤90d 559 -7.0% -15.9% 48% 38% -17.1%
all 559 -7.0% -15.9% 48% 38% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 38% -17.1%
10% -23.9% 31% -25.0%
15% -31.3% 25% -32.3%
20% -38.0% 19% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.27 · official $13.27 (match) · 1086 history records