Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:34:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77fe…835d other 143 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$960 (-19%) realized −$963 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%51W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$271
7 days−$6
14 days+$4
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$9
sports 23% −$548
crypto 18% −$436
weather 4% −$89
politics 3% +$6
tech 3% −$3
world 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +30.4% +18.0% 26% 24% -10.0%
≤30d 67 +27.1% +15.0% 33% 31% -11.0%
≤90d 141 +6.7% -3.4% 36% 30% -29.7%
all 141 +6.7% -3.4% 36% 30% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 30% -29.7%
10% -12.7% 27% -36.4%
15% -21.1% 23% -42.5%
20% -28.8% 20% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$27 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$963
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses51 / 90
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage64d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) IR Iran 56¢ 58¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $14 −$2 -15%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $15 $0 +2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $23 −$22 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 −$7 -67%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $15 −$7 -45%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $16 −$5 -30%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -17%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $25 −$2 -6%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $94 −$22 -24%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $32 −$20 -62%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $40 −$39 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $58 −$57 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $21 +$113 +550%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$35 +344%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $29 +$21 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$31 +105%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 +$42 +413%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $22 +$14 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $103 +$33 +32%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $9 +$23 +252%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $15 +$100 +650%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $65 −$64 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $19 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$133 +1290%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$101 +980%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 56¢ $27 20m
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 20m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 20m
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 50m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 52m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 9¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 18h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Ecuador 23¢ $8 18h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 18h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 40¢ $15 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 21h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 21h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Curaçao 35¢ $24 21h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 21h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 21h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 36¢ $25 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $45 21h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $12 23h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 29¢ $12 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 25h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 25h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 25h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $51 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $40 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.53 · official $45.05 (match) · 325 history records