Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
77 0x77fe…a351 other 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$18,528 (+14%) realized +$18,528 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +233% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +146% what you keep after slip
Net edge+146%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate54%88W / 74L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$814per market
Trades / day77.4pace
Fees−$2,338est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$399
7 days+$8,948
14 days+$16,785
30 days+$17,717
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$17,423
other 42% +$753
crypto 0% +$2
world 0% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+201.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +258.1% +224.0% 58% 35% +9.1%
≤30d 152 +246.9% +213.9% 54% 31% +3.0%
≤90d 162 +233.2% +201.5% 54% 31% +3.3%
all 162 +233.2% +201.5% 54% 31% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +201.5% 31% +3.3%
10% +172.7% 27% -6.6%
15% ← realistic here +146.3% 25% -15.6%
20% +122.2% 22% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +233% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +110% → late +357% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$50 · ×4.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.87 per $1 lost it wins $5.87
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18,528
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses88 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$2,338
Open positions0
Markets (closed)162 / 162
History coverage34d
Avg bet$814
Trades / day77.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 162 Trades
no open positions (61 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $1,785 +$397 +22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $2,942 −$698 -24%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $192 −$97 -51%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $5,848 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $2,225 +$116 +5%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $1,029 +$5,508 +535%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $315 −$60 -19%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $416 −$124 -30%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $11,328 +$182 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,056 −$296 -28%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $298 −$52 -17%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $3,716 +$59 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,791 −$54 -2%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $3,574 +$2,222 +62%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $38 +$5 +12%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $995 +$523 +53%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $210 +$28 +13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $301 −$19 -6%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $50 +$292 +580%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $408 −$45 -11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $357 +$120 +34%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 24 $4,709 +$224 +5%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $905 +$398 +44%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $1,630 +$113 +7%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $205 +$45 +22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $146 −$30 -20%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $842 +$281 +33%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $180 −$135 -75%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $589 +$35 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $983 −$177 -18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,240 −$342 -15%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $3,144 +$134 +4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $214 −$47 -22%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5,256 +$272 +5%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,159 −$24 -2%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $7,360 +$611 +8%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $600 +$29 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $732 −$46 -6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $300 −$9 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,393 +$235 +17%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,667 +$68 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,604 +$64 +2%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $55 +$22 +40%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3,091 +$42 +1%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $4,071 +$691 +17%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2,300 −$118 -5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $184 +$60 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 59¢ $72 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 59¢ $264 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 59¢ $19 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 65¢ $643 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 69¢ $690 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 94¢ $200 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 94¢ $22 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 94¢ $718 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $276 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $85 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $28 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $28 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $64 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $223 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 100¢ $555 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2732 history records