Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77fc…0eac sports 267 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,430 (+3%) realized +$2,468 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%111W / 148L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Fees−$309est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,040
7 days+$257
14 days+$129
30 days+$819
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% +$2,425
sports 27% −$1,012
other 27% +$766
crypto 3% +$140
weather 1% −$134
economics 0% +$20
culture 0% +$19
world 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -10.9% -19.4% 44% 31% -8.6%
≤30d 136 +10.6% +0.1% 49% 40% -7.9%
≤90d 254 -11.4% -19.9% 42% 35% -6.7%
all 259 -10.0% -18.6% 43% 37% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 37% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 33% -15.6%
15% -33.5% 28% -23.7%
20% -40.0% 25% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -31% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$45 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$2,468
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses111 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$309
Open positions8
Markets (closed)259 / 267
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$264
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $80 $66 −$13 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $54 $40 −$14 (-26%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+57%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-90%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,500 −$11 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,034 +$6 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $114 −$114 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,048 +$152 +7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $212 −$212 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $148 −$148 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $137 −$137 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $142 −$142 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,117 +$133 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $104 +$96 +92%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $154 +$166 +108%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,772 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $74 −$74 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,160 $0 -0%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $118 +$132 +113%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $80 +$120 +150%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $122 +$78 +64%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $360 −$28 -8%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $100 +$100 +100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $128 +$72 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,577 +$123 +8%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $78 +$122 +156%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $63 +$137 +216%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $32 +$36 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $94 +$106 +113%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $86 +$114 +133%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 12 $5,845 +$560 +10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$4 -18%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $143 +$57 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$4 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $268 +$90 +34%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $113 −$113 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $1,489 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $340 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $540 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $51 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $569 5h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 10h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $660 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $29 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $52 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $24 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $5 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $10 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $10 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $4 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $5 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $15 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $5 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $21 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $5 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $7 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $5 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $238 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $10 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $232 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 35¢ $295 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 35¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.91 · official $126.92 (match) · 3500 history records