Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77fa…a23d crypto 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,811 (-25%) realized −$1,804 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%33W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$602now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,917
7 days−$1,917
14 days−$1,917
30 days−$1,917
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$1,857
other 10% −$12
politics 1% −$33
sports 0% −$1
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -73.3% -75.8% 17% 8% -55.4%
≤30d 12 -73.3% -75.8% 17% 8% -55.4%
≤90d 108 -15.2% -23.3% 31% 28% -36.4%
all 108 -15.2% -23.3% 31% 28% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 28% -36.4%
10% -30.6% 27% -42.5%
15% -37.3% 25% -48.1%
20% -43.5% 24% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$52 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$602
Realized−$1,804
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses33 / 75
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage62d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $300 $406 +$106 (+35%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $300 $188 −$112 (-38%)
Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots Yes 53¢ 50¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $1,000 +$800 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $1,394 −$1,375 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $252 −$244 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $402 −$402 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $88 −$55 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $138 −$133 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 23 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 23 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 23 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 23 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 23 $54 −$20 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 23 $32 +$48 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 23 $32 +$82 +261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 23 $58 +$41 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 23 $42 −$19 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 23 $85 +$13 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 23 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 23 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 23 $19 +$146 +764%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 18? May 18 $114 −$93 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 18 $2 +$8 +331%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 17? May 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 17 $12 −$11 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? May 17 $530 +$35 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 17 $7 +$12 +169%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16? May 16 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 17? May 16 $11 +$17 +159%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 17? May 16 $10 +$3 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 16 $30 +$61 +202%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots BUY Yes 53¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $307 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $308 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $168 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $145 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $601.87 · official $601.87 (match) · 1171 history records