Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77f8…9e14 crypto 1201 markets active 2d ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$255 (-4%) realized −$256 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate61%729W / 467L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$9
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$64
sports 37% −$207
other 17% −$31
weather 0% +$14
world 0% +$1
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -63.1% -66.6% 25% 25% -65.8%
≤30d 136 -8.4% -17.1% 66% 66% -18.1%
≤90d 1196 -6.5% -15.4% 61% 55% -14.2%
all 1196 -6.5% -15.4% 61% 55% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 55% -14.2%
10% -23.5% 46% -22.4%
15% -30.9% 34% -29.9%
20% -37.7% 21% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$256
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses729 / 467
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1196 / 1201
History coverage83d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 10¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Royan (Doubles): Fancutt/Rai vs Hsu/Zhu Fancutt/Rai 72¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 287 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Set Handicap: Damm (-1.5) vs Munar (+1.5) Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 +$1 +27%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $5 +$2 +48%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 04 $4 +$2 +38%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Elias Ymer Jun 04 $4 +$2 +40%
Set 1 Winner: Lukas vs Semenistaja Jun 04 $5 +$2 +50%
Heilbronn: Jan Choinski vs Luka Mikrut Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Tyler: Andres Martin vs Blake Ellis Jun 03 $5 +$2 +52%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu Jun 03 $9 +$4 +39%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $5 +$2 +44%
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea Boskovic Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Maddison Inglis Jun 03 $9 +$4 +42%
Birmingham: Ugo Blanchet vs Felix Gill Jun 02 $4 −$4 -99%
Perugia: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 02 $5 +$2 +50%
Centurion 2: Sasikumar Mukund vs Giles Hussey Jun 02 $5 +$1 +31%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Prostejov: Miguel Damas vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 02 $5 +$2 +34%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Centurion 2: Sidharth Rawat vs Edward Winter Jun 02 $5 +$1 +27%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 02 $9 −$9 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $4 +$2 +34%
Heilbronn: Max Houkes vs Emilio Nava Jun 01 $5 +$1 +29%
Prostejov: Yosuke Watanuki vs Pedro Boscardin Dias Jun 01 $5 +$2 +52%
Centurion 2: Luc Koenig vs Semen Pankin Jun 01 $5 +$1 +32%
Perugia: Pierluigi Basile vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 01 $9 −$9 -99%
Heilbronn: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Pedro Martinez Jun 01 $5 +$2 +52%
Prostejov: Maxim Mrva vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 01 $4 −$4 -99%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Ilia Simakin Jun 01 $5 +$1 +29%
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch Jun 01 $5 +$2 +44%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $5 +$2 +52%
Centurion: Giles Hussey vs Edward Winter May 31 $5 +$1 +26%
Heilbronn: Hugo Dellien vs Max Schoenhaus May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Birmingham: Mackenzie McDonald vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Little Rock: Michael Mmoh vs Justin Boulais May 31 $5 +$1 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $4 +$2 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $5 +$1 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $5 +$1 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $5 +$2 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Little Rock: Colton Smith vs Tyler Zink May 30 $4 +$2 +36%
Vicenza: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Lukas Neumayer May 30 $5 +$2 +48%
Little Rock: Andre Ilagan vs Aidan Mayo May 30 $4 −$4 -99%
Chisinau: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Stefanos Sakellaridis May 30 $5 +$2 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 69¢ $5 42h
Royan (Doubles): Fancutt/Rai vs Hsu/Zhu BUY Fancutt/Rai 72¢ $4 2d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Donna Vekic 67¢ $5 4d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 71¢ $4 6d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Otto Virtanen 67¢ $5 6d
Set Handicap: Damm (-1.5) vs Munar (+1.5) BUY Munar 69¢ $5 8d
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Yunchaokete Bu 67¢ $5 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 78¢ $5 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Diana Shnaider 69¢ $5 12d
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Elias Ymer BUY Sho Shimabukuro 71¢ $4 12d
Heilbronn: Jan Choinski vs Luka Mikrut BUY Jan Choinski 65¢ $5 12d
Set 1 Winner: Lukas vs Semenistaja BUY Semenistaja 66¢ $5 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 69¢ $5 13d
Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Darja Semenistaja 72¢ $4 13d
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea Boskovic BUY Robin Montgomery 66¢ $5 13d
Tyler: Andres Martin vs Blake Ellis BUY Andres Martin 65¢ $5 14d
Birmingham: Ugo Blanchet vs Felix Gill BUY Ugo Blanchet 73¢ $4 14d
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu BUY Adam Walton 73¢ $4 14d
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 67¢ $5 14d
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday BUY Johannus Monday 65¢ $5 14d
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade BUY Andres Andrade 71¢ $4 15d
Centurion 2: Sasikumar Mukund vs Giles Hussey BUY Giles Hussey 76¢ $5 15d
Prostejov: Miguel Damas vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 74¢ $5 15d
Perugia: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Dusan Lajovic 66¢ $5 15d
Centurion 2: Sidharth Rawat vs Edward Winter BUY Edward Winter 78¢ $5 15d
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Maddison Inglis BUY Celine Naef 65¢ $5 15d
Perugia: Pierluigi Basile vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 78¢ $5 15d
Prostejov: Maxim Mrva vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 72¢ $4 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Aryna Sabalenka 74¢ $4 15d
Prostejov: Yosuke Watanuki vs Pedro Boscardin Dias BUY Pedro Boscardin Dias 65¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.20 · official $20.80 (match) · 3245 history records