Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:42:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

77 0x77f4…148c sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$1,233 (+39%) realized +$884 · open +$349

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip

Net edge+37%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$637per market

Trades / day9.9pace

Fees−$30est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$1,765now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+48.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+64.0%	+48.4%	100%	75%	+52.5%
≤30d	4	+64.0%	+48.4%	100%	75%	+52.5%
≤90d	4	+64.0%	+48.4%	100%	75%	+52.5%
all	4	+64.0%	+48.4%	100%	75%	+52.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+48.4%	75%	+52.5%
10%	+34.2%	75%	+37.9%
15%	+21.2%	75%	+24.6%
20%	+9.3%	75%	+12.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 81% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +69% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +64% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$301 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,765

Realized+$884

Unrealized+$349

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Est. fees paid−$30

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$637

Trades / day9.9

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)	T1	69¢	86¢	$1,416	$1,765	+$349 (+25%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$703	+$604	+86%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs	Jun 28	$344	+$1	+0%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5)	Jun 28	$350	+$368	+105%
Games Total: O/U 3.5	Jun 28	$360	+$233	+65%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)	BUY T1	70¢	$706	57m
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)	BUY T1	69¢	$9	58m
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)	BUY T1	68¢	$27	2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)	BUY T1	68¢	$687	2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,307	6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	53¢	$703	9h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs	SELL Sharks	66¢	$346	16h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs	BUY Sharks	64¢	$344	19h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5)	BUY Karmine Corp	48¢	$350	24h
Games Total: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	60¢	$360	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,765.14 · official $1,765.14 (match) · 12 history records