Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

77 0x77f2…77bb economics 11 markets active 5d ago coverage 736d

RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$2,146 (+68%) realized +$2,437 · open −$291

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate12%1W / 7L

Drawdown29%max

Avg bet$289per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)-5.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	8	+4.9%	-5.1%	12%	12%	+73.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.1%	12%	+73.7%
10%	-14.2%	12%	+57.0%
15%	-22.5%	12%	+41.9%
20%	-30.1%	12%	+28.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +92% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$3,418 vs −$140 · ×24.4 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.49 per $1 lost it wins $3.49

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

736d coverage

Net worth$203

Realized+$2,437

Unrealized−$291

Win rate (resolved)12%

Wins / losses1 / 7

Open positions3

Markets (closed)8 / 11

History coverage736d

Avg bet$289

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown29%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	6¢	3¢	$251	$120	−$131 (-52%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$191	$57	−$134 (-70%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$52	$26	−$26 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?	Jan 29	$163	−$153	-94%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?	Jan 29	$70	−$70	-100%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?	Jan 29	$590	−$590	-100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Sep 18	$345	−$10	-3%
Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee?	Aug 21	$105	−$44	-41%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?	Jul 23	$525	−$113	-22%
Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?	Jul 23	$27	−$1	-5%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?	Jul 08	$835	+$3,418	+409%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee	BUY Yes	6¢	$12	5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee	BUY Yes	6¢	$165	5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee	BUY Yes	6¢	$86	5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$200	5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	BUY Yes	0¢	$55	5d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	503d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$9	503d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?	SELL Yes	2¢	$10	503d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$4	503d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$60	503d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$4	503d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	503d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	503d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	503d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$144	503d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	503d
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$198	636d
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$32	636d
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	636d
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$7	636d
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	636d
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	636d
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	636d
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	636d
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	636d
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$4	636d
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	636d
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	636d
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	636d
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	636d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.85 · official $202.85 (match) · 68 history records