Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:08:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

77 0x77f2…2a07 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized +$22 · open −$23

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip

Net edge-50%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown23%max

Avg bet$33per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-48.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-43.0%	-48.5%	25%	25%	+9.3%
≤30d	4	-43.0%	-48.5%	25%	25%	+9.3%
≤90d	4	-43.0%	-48.5%	25%	25%	+9.3%
all	4	-43.0%	-48.5%	25%	25%	+9.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-48.5%	25%	+9.3%
10%	-53.4%	25%	-1.1%
15%	-57.9%	0%	-10.7%
20%	-62.0%	0%	-19.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -43% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$24 vs −$2 · ×15.88 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.29 per $1 lost it wins $5.29

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$78

Realized+$22

Unrealized−$23

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$33

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown23%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	48¢	36¢	$68	$51	−$18 (-26%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	24¢	20¢	$32	$28	−$5 (-15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$79	+$24	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Jun 18	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 18	$11	$0	-3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$33	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$69	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$103	2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	76¢	$79	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$1	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$3	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	SELL Down	27¢	$10	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$11	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.32 · official $78.32 (match) · 11 history records