Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77f2…eec6 sports 651 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$151 (+0%) realized +$470 · open −$319
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%360W / 290L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$1,440est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$240
7 days+$254
14 days−$185
30 days+$1,688
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,163
crypto 0% −$109
other 0% −$22
world 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +12.2% +1.5% 65% 65% +4.8%
≤30d 177 +2.6% -7.2% 60% 58% -2.8%
≤90d 461 -8.9% -17.6% 53% 52% -13.7%
all 650 -5.3% -14.3% 55% 54% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 54% -9.6%
10% -22.5% 48% -18.3%
15% -30.0% 41% -26.2%
20% -36.9% 30% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$190 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$470
Unrealized−$319
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses360 / 290
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,440
Open positions2
Markets (closed)650 / 651
History coverage129d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Nigma Galaxy 78¢ 72¢ $48 $45 −$3 (-7%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Yellow Submarine 41¢ 0¢ $316 $0 −$316 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 185 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: 1win vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $127 +$200 +157%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $293 −$290 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $222 +$123 +56%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 28 $125 +$61 +49%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $101 +$42 +42%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $31 +$28 +92%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $46 +$27 +58%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $36 +$50 +139%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $36 +$42 +118%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $35 −$34 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $48 +$40 +85%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $47 −$2 -4%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $84 +$21 +24%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $40 +$20 +50%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $35 +$28 +79%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $27 +$5 +17%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $35 +$12 +34%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 25 $39 +$6 +16%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $31 +$14 +46%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $20 +$11 +57%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $50 −$49 -99%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $88 −$87 -98%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $120 +$20 +17%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $67 +$12 +18%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $84 +$23 +27%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $59 −$58 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $174 −$86 -49%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 15 $101 +$43 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $118 −$117 -99%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 15 $149 −$22 -14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $36 +$4 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $114 +$64 +56%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 +$39 +152%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $68 −$67 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $48 +$19 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $84 +$38 +45%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $65 +$34 +53%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $26 +$8 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 78¢ $48 16m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 34¢ $67 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 59¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 50¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 25¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $327 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 40¢ $51 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 37¢ $76 3h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 64¢ $293 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $245 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 91¢ $100 5h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 64¢ $51 5h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 61¢ $171 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe BUY Carstensz 63¢ $16 15h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe BUY Carstensz 67¢ $109 15h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 57¢ $59 29h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $101 29h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 29¢ $31 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL 80¢ $73 38h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner SELL 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 100¢ $85 42h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner SELL 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 100¢ $78 43h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 41¢ $36 44h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 45¢ $36 44h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 34¢ $15 46h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 33¢ $19 46h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $88 46h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 58¢ $9 47h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 52¢ $39 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 57¢ $45 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY 49¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.00 · official $48.69 · 1594 history records