Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x77f0…2b1f
weather · 643 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,775 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,037 · open −$743
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12,302
Realized−$5,037
Unrealized−$743
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses289 / 286
Open positions200
Markets (closed)575 / 643
History coverage5d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day714.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 200 History 575 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,934
7 days−$5,037
14 days−$5,037
30 days−$5,037
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 86¢ 99¢ $284 $327 +$43 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 77¢ 93¢ $242 $291 +$49 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 12? No 92¢ 100¢ $233 $252 +$19 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? No 83¢ 100¢ $195 $235 +$40 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 13? No 94¢ 96¢ $229 $233 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? No 87¢ 88¢ $228 $229 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? No 95¢ 89¢ $241 $225 −$16 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 87¢ 99¢ $186 $210 +$24 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? No 91¢ 90¢ $211 $209 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 86¢ 84¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? No 90¢ 100¢ $175 $193 +$18 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 80¢ 74¢ $206 $192 −$14 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? No 78¢ 91¢ $164 $191 +$27 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 13? No 94¢ 98¢ $173 $181 +$8 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? No 91¢ 82¢ $194 $175 −$19 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12? No 78¢ 72¢ $189 $175 −$14 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? No 85¢ 83¢ $179 $174 −$5 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 76¢ 85¢ $152 $171 +$19 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? No 91¢ 72¢ $212 $168 −$44 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? No 79¢ 100¢ $130 $164 +$34 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 92¢ 97¢ $152 $161 +$9 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? No 85¢ 94¢ $146 $161 +$15 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 92¢ 94¢ $158 $161 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 84¢ 96¢ $136 $158 +$21 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? No 92¢ 86¢ $167 $156 −$11 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 25 Jun 12 $0 +$1 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 16°C on March 21? Jun 12 $0 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on March 30? Jun 12 $0 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 24? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 20? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 18 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 14? Jun 12 $135 −$135 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on Marc Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 27? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or higher on March 18 Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 28? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 17? Jun 12 $237 −$207 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on April 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 28? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 25? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 2? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 1? Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 14 Jun 12 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 27? Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on March 2? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 22 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 26? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on March 26? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on February Jun 12 $203 −$203 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on March 24? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 26? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on April 1? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C or higher on March 17? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 23? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 19? Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 28 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 20? Jun 12 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 28? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C or higher on Marc Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on March 22 Jun 12 $95 −$95 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 16°C on March 25? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 16? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or higher on March 17 Jun 12 $111 −$111 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 1? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 22? Jun 12 $114 −$114 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on March 27 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on March 26? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C or below on March 23? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 19? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on March 26 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 19? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$5,690
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $15 13m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 27m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $12 28m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $5 41m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $51 44m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $43 51m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $87 53m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $17 54m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $170 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 71¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 575 -2.9% -12.1% 50% 36% -22.1%
≤30d 575 -2.9% -12.1% 50% 36% -22.1%
≤90d 575 -2.9% -12.1% 50% 36% -22.1%
all 575 -2.9% -12.1% 50% 36% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover714.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 36% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 21% -29.6%
15% -28.2% 12% -36.4%
20% -35.3% 6% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,302.32 · official $12,292.09 (match) · 3500 history records