Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77ea…2ef8 other 201 markets active 21h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-2%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$3
politics 21% −$1
world 14% −$1
crypto 12% −$1
tech 9% −$1
culture 6% $0
economics 5% $0
finance 3% $0
sports 3% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -1.7% -11.1% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 50 -2.5% -11.8% 2% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 137 -2.6% -11.9% 7% 0% -11.8%
all 201 -2.8% -12.0% 5% 0% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -11.6%
10% -20.5% 0% -20.0%
15% -28.1% 0% -27.7%
20% -35.2% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 190
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)201 / 201
History coverage224d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 201 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the second highest private market valuation on Jun Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -0%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Jun 06 $1 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $1 $0 -1%
Will Apple announce all six next-generation operating systems during t Jun 05 $1 $0 -9%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +8%
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Jun 03 $1 $0 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 02 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 02 $1 $0 -2%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? Jun 01 $1 $0 -1%
Trump on $250 bill this year? Jun 01 $1 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $660b on June 30? May 30 $1 $0 -4%
Will Sam Gallucci advance from the CA-26 primary election? May 29 $1 $0 -17%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? May 29 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 28 $1 $0 -1%
Will jL win a trophy by June 30? May 28 $1 $0 -3%
Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open? May 27 $1 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 26 $2 $0 -0%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $1 $0 -3%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? May 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 22 $1 $0 -0%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 22 $1 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Governme May 21 $1 $0 -14%
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% May 20 $1 $0 -4%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 20 $1 $0 -1%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? May 19 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 86¢ $1 20h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 94¢ $1 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 87¢ $1 20h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 95¢ $1 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $1 43h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 98¢ $1 43h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1 44h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $1 45h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $1 2d
Will Anthropic have the second highest private market valuation on Jun SELL Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will Anthropic have the second highest private market valuation on Jun BUY Yes 96¢ $1 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $1 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? SELL No 93¢ $1 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $1 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 5d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 93¢ $1 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 94¢ $1 5d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 6d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 82¢ $1 6d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 6d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 83¢ $1 6d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $1 6d
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 8d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 8d
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 8d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 546 history records