Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:16:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x77e9…526e other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,733 (+7%) realized +$3,733 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$3,133per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$1
sports 10% +$3,741
other 4% −$7
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 44% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 44% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 44% 0% -10.5%
all 13 +5.1% -4.9% 38% 8% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 8% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 8% -11.9%
15% -22.3% 8% -20.4%
20% -29.9% 8% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$750 vs −$3 · ×215.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×215.55 per $1 lost it wins $215.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3,733
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage104d
Avg bet$3,133
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 41¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 79¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 77¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $179 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $254 +$6 +2%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $66 +$2 +3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $22 −$1 -6%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Jun 24 $62 −$1 -2%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 23 $64 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $149 −$14 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Jun 23 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $25,841 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Mar 18 $110 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $17,176 $0 +0%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 18 $4,959 +$3,741 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $178 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $179 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 79¢ $40 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 79¢ $9 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 79¢ $24 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 79¢ $21 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 79¢ $19 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 79¢ $46 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $158 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $41 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $42 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 79¢ $158 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $158 9h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 63¢ $126 10h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 62¢ $124 11h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 34¢ $68 11h
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 41¢ $67 13h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 33¢ $66 14h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 65¢ $65 24h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 63¢ $63 25h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 69¢ $69 32h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 67¢ $67 32h
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 41¢ $68 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $163 36h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $164 36h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $164 37h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $166 37h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $34 38h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $34 38h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records