Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x77e5…1e4d crypto 240 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$257 (+9%) realized +$257 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%111W / 129L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$124
14 days−$124
30 days−$542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -69.6% -72.5% 20% 20% -74.6%
≤30d 144 -49.8% -54.6% 21% 20% -48.3%
≤90d 240 +1.4% -8.3% 46% 42% -7.1%
all 240 +1.4% -8.3% 46% 42% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 42% -7.1%
10% -17.0% 33% -16.0%
15% -25.0% 28% -24.1%
20% -32.4% 24% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +79% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$257
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses111 / 129
Open positions0
Markets (closed)240 / 240
History coverage52d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 240 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 19 $13 +$9 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 19 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 19 $5 +$26 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 19 $4 +$6 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 19 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 19 $5 +$17 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 19 $3 +$7 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $13 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 482 history records