Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
77 0x77e4…87e4 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate73%40W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$6
crypto 12% +$2
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$5
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 55 -1.7% -11.1% 73% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses40 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage525d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $101 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 03 $70 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $59 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $75 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $72 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $72 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 03 $59 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? Oct 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 03 $59 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $63 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 03 $80 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jul 12 $44 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in May? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $6,002 −$6 -0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 20 $83 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Apr 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian E Apr 11 $40 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 -4%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +2%
Will the People's party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Mar 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will Oregon win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025? Mar 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by January 31? Feb 22 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $101 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $70 31d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $26 62d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $59 63d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 92d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 92d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $75 93d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $28 122d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 98¢ $56 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $18 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $72 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $17 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $72 182d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $42 212d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? BUY No 100¢ $22 243d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $59 243d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $14 272d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? BUY No 100¢ $17 273d
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? BUY No 100¢ $59 274d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $25 302d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $63 302d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $11 332d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $13 334d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $69 334d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $44 366d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 393d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 394d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.50 · official $100.50 (match) · 118 history records