Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:48:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
77 0x77e3…d02a other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate53%25W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$42
14 days+$42
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$18
crypto 21% −$35
sports 16% −$32
world 13% +$52
politics 5% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -3.9% -13.1% 74% 48% -6.9%
≤30d 23 -3.9% -13.1% 74% 48% -6.9%
≤90d 23 -3.9% -13.1% 74% 48% -6.9%
all 47 -16.4% -24.4% 53% 26% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 26% -9.6%
10% -31.6% 21% -18.3%
15% -38.2% 6% -26.2%
20% -44.3% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses25 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage458d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$30 +30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$32 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$18 +18%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $115 +$7 +6%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$10 +34%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +66%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$46 +46%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $113 −$111 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $80 +$16 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $136 +$36 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $127 +$36 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Angels vs. Orioles Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 29 $7 −$5 -72%
Hawks vs. Rockets Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Hornets Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Knicks Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
UConn vs. Florida Mar 23 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Clinton" by March 28? Mar 23 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Donald Trump dance in March? Mar 22 $2 $0 -20%
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? Mar 22 $6 $0 -5%
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? Mar 22 $2 $0 -0%
Was JFK assassinated by a foreign government? Mar 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump enact India travel ban in first 100 days? Mar 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by March 31? Mar 22 $3 $0 -0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Mar 22 $3 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Mar 22 $5 $0 -0%
Canucks vs. Rangers Mar 22 $67 −$31 -46%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 22 $2 $0 +1%
Magic vs. Wizards Mar 22 $26 +$6 +24%
Will Trump say "Trans" during today's Education Event? Mar 21 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 19? Mar 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 20 $1 $0 -12%
Canada election called before April? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 19? Mar 20 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $131 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $134 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 98¢ $119 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 24h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $100 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $70 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $23 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $7 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $109 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $100 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $115 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $40 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $64 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 91¢ $106 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records