Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:08:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x77e3…2216 sports 227 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$82 (+4%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%122W / 97L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$57
14 days+$42
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$43
other 5% +$56
crypto 1% +$7
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +18.2% +7.0% 51% 49% +1.3%
≤30d 143 -4.9% -13.9% 47% 43% -8.3%
≤90d 193 -0.0% -9.5% 53% 50% -5.3%
all 219 +1.0% -8.7% 56% 52% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 52% -4.9%
10% -17.4% 45% -14.0%
15% -25.4% 36% -22.3%
20% -32.7% 27% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses122 / 97
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)219 / 227
History coverage111d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 219 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 +$5 +158%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $7 +$1 +21%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$12 +59%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $6 −$1 -12%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $42 −$5 -13%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $8 +$19 +238%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $3 +$13 +413%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 +$7 +29%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $15 +$10 +65%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $6 −$2 -35%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $11 +$5 +46%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $13 +$8 +62%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) Jun 21 $2 +$2 +119%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $18 +$10 +52%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 +$4 +86%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $15 −$2 -14%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $15 +$6 +39%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 +$16 +770%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $7 +$4 +52%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$3 +32%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $6 +$6 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $20 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $5 +$3 +58%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $5 −$4 -80%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $5 +$6 +112%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $25 +$3 +10%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $17 +$10 +55%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $30 +$10 +33%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $28 +$4 +15%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $101 +$8 +8%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Australia win on 2026-0 BUY 12¢ $2 6m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $3 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 53¢ $12 9h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $5 33h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win o BUY 27¢ $5 36h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 93¢ $8 46h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 55¢ $5 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 47h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $6 47h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY 41¢ $5 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $30 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 13¢ $3 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $12 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 95¢ $21 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $15 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portuga BUY 13¢ $3 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $3 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 42¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $25 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 29¢ $8 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $15 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $16 3d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1.94 · 515 history records