Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:54:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x77e3…19a5 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate84%42W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$12
other 2% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +113.9% +93.6% 100% 100% +93.6%
≤30d 1 +113.9% +93.6% 100% 100% +93.6%
≤90d 1 +113.9% +93.6% 100% 100% +93.6%
all 50 +3.4% -6.4% 84% 36% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 36% -8.3%
10% -15.4% 12% -17.1%
15% -23.6% 6% -25.1%
20% -31.0% 6% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +114% too few recent
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$33 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses42 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage214d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 +$56 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1PM ET Nov 23 $50 −$9 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 10AM ET Nov 23 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 11AM ET Nov 23 $150 −$145 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 9AM ET Nov 23 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 7AM ET Nov 23 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 8AM ET Nov 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 1PM ET Nov 23 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 12PM ET Nov 23 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 2PM ET Nov 23 $55 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 11AM ET Nov 23 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 9AM ET Nov 23 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 3PM ET Nov 23 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 5PM ET Nov 23 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 6PM ET Nov 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 6AM ET Nov 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 5PM ET Nov 22 $60 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 7AM ET Nov 22 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 6PM ET Nov 22 $83 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 7PM ET Nov 22 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 3PM ET Nov 21 $2 +$4 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 2PM ET Nov 21 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 1PM ET Nov 21 $44 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 9AM ET Nov 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 4PM ET Nov 21 $60 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 8AM ET Nov 21 $70 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 11AM ET Nov 21 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 10AM ET Nov 21 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 3PM ET Nov 21 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 7PM ET Nov 21 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 6PM ET Nov 21 $97 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 4PM ET Nov 21 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 5PM ET Nov 21 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 8AM ET Nov 20 $4 +$3 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 9AM ET Nov 20 $53 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Nov 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Nov 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 12PM ET Nov 20 $69 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 1PM ET Nov 20 $103 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 11AM ET Nov 20 $105 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2PM ET Nov 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 10AM ET Nov 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 7AM ET Nov 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 4PM ET Nov 20 $9 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 7PM ET Nov 20 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 8PM ET Nov 20 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 3PM ET Nov 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 5PM ET Nov 20 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 6PM ET Nov 20 $44 +$16 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 19? Nov 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 46¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $36 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $6 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 11AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $5 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 11AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 11AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 11AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $50 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 9AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 9AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 8AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 8AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $50 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 7AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 7AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $50 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 5PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 210d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 5PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 210d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 3PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 210d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 3PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 210d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 2PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $50 210d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 2PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 210d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 2PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 210d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 1PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 210d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 12PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 210d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 11AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 210d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 11AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records