Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77e2…1d46 crypto 340 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$68 (+9%) realized +$76 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%193W / 144L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$72
other 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +24.4% +12.5% 76% 76% +28.7%
≤30d 25 +24.4% +12.5% 76% 76% +28.7%
≤90d 63 -35.4% -41.5% 38% 38% -18.5%
all 337 +4.6% -5.4% 57% 53% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 53% -0.5%
10% -14.5% 49% -10.0%
15% -22.7% 45% -18.7%
20% -30.3% 33% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$76
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses193 / 144
Open positions3
Markets (closed)337 / 340
History coverage144d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$6 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 10 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 26 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 26 $4 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 10 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 22 $4 +$4 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 947 history records