Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77e1…4fdd sports 59 markets active 9h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-15%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%30W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$28
14 days−$64
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$16
other 34% −$43
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -11.2% -19.7% 58% 55% -19.1%
≤30d 56 -11.3% -19.7% 54% 52% -24.7%
≤90d 56 -11.3% -19.7% 54% 52% -24.7%
all 56 -11.3% -19.7% 54% 52% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 52% -24.7%
10% -27.4% 45% -31.9%
15% -34.4% 30% -38.4%
20% -40.9% 21% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses30 / 26
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage9d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Côte dIvoire 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +44%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 24 $5 +$9 +180%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 24 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +27%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $12 +$2 +17%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $12 +$4 +30%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $12 +$8 +67%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$3 +24%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +26%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 +$2 +38%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $11 +$3 +28%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $6 +$1 +20%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -81%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 +$9 +172%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $5 +$2 +32%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$4 +79%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $34 −$28 -82%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 18 $6 +$2 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $6 +$19 +307%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 +$3 +57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -88%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 43¢ $5 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $5 8h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 59¢ $5 28h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $5 28h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 31h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $5 32h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $2 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 42¢ $5 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 4d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 80¢ $8 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $5 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 60¢ $5 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 59¢ $12 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $6 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $15 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $12 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Under 76¢ $12 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $12 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $12 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $5 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $5 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 55¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.43 · official $28.43 (match) · 115 history records