Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:03:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77e0…32cd sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$3
other 16% −$3
crypto 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +3.1% -6.7% 39% 39% -11.6%
≤30d 36 +3.1% -6.7% 39% 39% -11.6%
≤90d 36 +3.1% -6.7% 39% 39% -11.6%
all 36 +3.1% -6.7% 39% 39% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 39% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 36% -20.1%
15% -23.8% 33% -27.8%
20% -31.3% 28% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Iraq leading at halftime? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Croatia leading at halftime? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +88%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 −$3 -52%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $1 +$1 +78%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 +$7 +704%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +84%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +103%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 +$5 +504%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $1 +$2 +156%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +91%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $1 +$2 +223%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $1 1h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY No 93¢ $1 15h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $1 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 32h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 32h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 35h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Rwanda 55¢ $1 35h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $1 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 35h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 12¢ $1 38h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 69¢ $1 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 42h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 86¢ $1 46h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 87¢ $1 47h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 47h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 47h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 38¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.00 · official $9.01 (match) · 70 history records