Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

77 0x77d5…d1fc crypto 6 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1 (-8%) realized −$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-19.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-11.3%	-19.7%	67%	33%	-19.7%
≤30d	6	-11.3%	-19.7%	67%	33%	-19.7%
≤90d	6	-11.3%	-19.7%	67%	33%	-19.7%
all	6	-11.3%	-19.7%	67%	33%	-19.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.7%	33%	-19.7%
10%	-27.4%	17%	-27.4%
15%	-34.4%	17%	-34.4%
20%	-40.8%	17%	-40.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 80% · top 2 93% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.66 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 12	$2	−$2	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 12	$2	+$2	+105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Jun 12	$2	$0	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 12	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 11	$2	$0	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 11	$2	$0	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	SELL Up	59¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$2	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records