Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77d3…4536 sports 214 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%25W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$3
politics 21% −$3
other 21% −$3
crypto 9% −$1
economics 7% −$1
world 7% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 16 -0.5% -9.9% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 213 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses25 / 188
Open positions1
Markets (closed)213 / 214
History coverage166d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $23 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 30 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $25 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $138 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $80 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 26 $25 $0 -2%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 26 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 25 $102 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $153 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 24 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $59 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 23 $168 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $179 −$1 -1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 21 $61 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 21 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $104 +$1 +0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $33 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 17 $119 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $69 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 13 $78 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 12 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 12 $72 −$1 -1%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 10 $301 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $130 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $71 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 95¢ $23 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $23 8d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $26 21d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 21d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $25 33d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $25 33d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $25 85d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $25 85d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $35 85d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $35 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL No 94¢ $25 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $25 86d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $32 86d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $32 86d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $25 86d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $25 86d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $35 86d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $9 87d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $25 87d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $36 87d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $36 87d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $28 87d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $28 87d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 95¢ $37 87d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 95¢ $37 88d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $13 88d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $13 88d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $21 88d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $21 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.37 · official $30.37 (match) · 828 history records