trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -38.8% | -44.7% | 50% | 50% | +0.7% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -38.8% | -44.7% | 50% | 50% | +0.7% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +74.6% | +58.0% | 80% | 80% | +12.3% |
| all | 10 | -12.7% | -21.0% | 40% | 40% | -53.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.0% | 40% | -53.9% |
| 10% | -28.6% | 30% | -58.3% |
| 15% | -35.5% | 10% | -62.4% |
| 20% | -41.8% | 10% | -66.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 14¢ | $100 | $89 | −$11 (-11%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 7¢ | $50 | $47 | −$3 (-6%) |
| Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $20 | $19 | −$1 (-6%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | 67¢ | 14¢ | $50 | $11 | −$39 (-78%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $201 | +$45 | +22% |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | May 10 | $10 | +$42 | +414% |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | May 08 | $100 | +$13 | +13% |
| Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? | May 08 | $100 | +$24 | +24% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jan 03 | $49 | −$49 | -100% |
| Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Aug 14 | $83 | −$83 | -100% |
| Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jul 13 | $120 | −$120 | -100% |
| US military action against Iran by Monday? | Jul 06 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| US military action against Iran before August? | Jun 23 | $348 | −$348 | -100% |