Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77cd…8caa world 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$6
other 22% +$1
politics 14% $0
sports 3% +$3
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -1.2% -10.6% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 27 -2.2% -11.5% 37% 0% -9.7%
all 57 -2.2% -11.5% 46% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 4% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage486d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $86 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $73 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $53 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $56 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $32 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $67 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $52 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $31 +$1 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $7 −$1 -19%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $61 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $70 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 -12%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $296 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $298 +$3 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $293 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 12 $292 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $26 −$9 -36%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 01 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 12 $5 $0 -8%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 10 $14 $0 -0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? May 08 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $14 $0 +1%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 06 $15 +$1 +4%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? Mar 30 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $36 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $36 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $26 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $32 28h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 32h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $0 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $29 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $21 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $3 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $28 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $28 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $16 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $24 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 186 history records